DECEMBER 15 2021

Federal Fiscal Update: Canada Has Weathered The Pandemic Storm Relatively Well

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland extolled the performance of the Canadian economy in response to the extraordinary support provided by the federal fiscal authorities and the Bank of Canada in the past 21 months. The economic recovery has been the second strongest in the g-7, and the death rate from Covid-19 was the second-lowest. Emergency spending by the federal government was enormous, but the federal government maintained its triple-A credit rating. The Canadian government on Tuesday cut its deficit forecast for the current fiscal year, citing higher tax revenues and less emergency aid spending while earmarking new funds to fight the Omicron coronavirus variant.

“As we look ahead, we are mindful of elevated inflation,” Freeland said in the forward of the update. “We know inflation is a global phenomenon driven by the unprecedented challenge of re-opening the world’s economy. Turning on the global economy is a good deal more complicated than turning it off. We, like other countries, are experiencing the consequences of a time unlike any other.”

Here are some of the key forecasts presented in the fiscal update:

• The budget deficit came in at $327.7 billion in the last fiscal year (FY) 2020-21–almost $27 billion less than forecast in the spring budget. As it turns out, revenue came in $20 billion stronger than expected, while expenses were $6 billion lower than expected.
• This year’s red ink is expected to be $144.5 billion versus the $154.7 billion forecast in April.
• Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 47.5% last FY will peak at 48% this FY versus 51.2% expected in April and fall subsequently to 44% in FY 2026-27. This compares to the pre-pandemic levels of roughly 31%.

“It has been a hard 21 months,” said Freeland. “As we brace ourselves for the rising wave of Omicron, we know that no one wants to endure new lockdowns,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in prepared remarks.

The Trudeau Liberals are pointing to improvements in the labour market, personal incomes and corporate profits as it forecasts tens of billions of dollars in additional revenue annually through 2026.

There is $13 billion in additional spending since the budget aimed at “finishing the fight against COVID-19” and another $4.5 billion in provisions for any Omicron response this fiscal year. There is $1.7 billion for rapid COVID tests in the fiscal update and $2 billion for COVID therapeutics and treatments. In a nod to the persistence of COVID, the previously announced extensions of the wage, rent and recovery benefits in the fall will put another $6.7 billion on the COVID tab this fiscal year.

When it comes to feeding Canada’s economic growth in the years to come, Ottawa is touting the importance of immigration to address labour shortages. The fiscal update earmarks $85 million in the 2022-23 fiscal year to speed up the application process to bring in workers for key industries hit by labour shortage coming out of the pandemic.

The “Underused Housing Tax Budget 2021” announced the government’s intention to implement a national, annual 1.0% tax on the value of non-resident, non-Canadian-owned residential real estate in Canada that is considered vacant or underused. It is proposed that the tax be effective for the 2022 calendar year.

Bottom Line

Today’s fiscal update document may well be most notable in what it omitted. There was no mention of the many new spending promises marked in the summer’s Liberal election platform. Those promises added up to $78 billion over five years.

The Opposition parties in the House of Commons harped on rising inflation and its negative impact on Canadian households and businesses. To be sure, the Trudeau government is not responsible for the surge in global inflation arising from the supply disruptions, labour shortages and enormous pent-up demand. Still, with the Bank of Canada poised for rate hikes next year, the Liberals could well be accused of stoking inflation with additional fiscal stimulus. We will undoubtedly hear more on the election promises when the government’s 2022 budget is announced, likely sometime this spring.

Please note: The source of this article is from Sherry Cooper

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DECEMBER 3 2021

Another Blockbuster Jobs Report in November

Statistics Canada released the November Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting employment gains of 153,700 last month–four times bigger than expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 6% from the 6.7% rate posted in October and is only 0.3 percentage points above the 5.7% rate posted in February 2020 before the pandemic began. This, along with the solid third-quarter GDP report released earlier this week, locks in expectations for a Bank of Canada interest rate hike next year.

Employment is now 186,000 jobs above pre-Covid levels. November’s report marks the sixth straight month of job gains. Markets are already pricing in five Bank of Canada interest rate hikes next year.

Employment increased in both the services-producing and goods-producing sectors in November. Both full-time (+80,000; +0.5%) and part-time (+74,000; +2.1%) work increased, and employment gains were spread across six provinces.

Total hours worked increased 0.7% and returned to the pre-pandemic February 2020 level for the first time. Hours rose across most industries, led by manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and construction. Despite increasing in November, hours in the goods-producing sector were still below their pre-pandemic level (-3.6%). All of the growth compared with February 2020 was in the services-producing sector (+1.3%), most notably in professional scientific and technical services (+12.5%).

Record high employment rate among core-aged women

More than 8 in 10 (80.7%) core-aged women aged 25 to 54 were employed in November, the highest employment rate recorded since comparable data became available in 1976 and 1.0 percentage points higher than in February 2020. In November, employment among core-aged women grew 66,000 (+1.1%), primarily in full-time work (+47,000; +0.9%), with growth spread across several industries.

Employment rose by 48,000 (+0.7%) among core-aged men in November, with gains entirely in full-time work. The employment rate for men aged 25 to 54 increased 0.5 percentage points to 87.1%, which is on par with the recent high in September 2019, and 0.5 percentage points higher than in February 2020.

Unemployment rate declined for the sixth consecutive month

The unemployment rate fell 0.7 percentage points to 6.0% in November. This was the sixth straight monthly drop and the most significant decline since March 2021. Before the pandemic, the unemployment rate had hit a record low of 5.4% in May 2019 and was 5.7% in February 2020.

First decline in long-term unemployment since August

The number of Canadians unemployed for 27 weeks or more fell 62,000 (-16.2%) in November, the first monthly decline in long-term unemployment since August 2021. Long-term unemployment fell more for women (-43,000; -24.2%) than for men (-19,000; -9.4%), with the decline spread across the core-aged and 55 and older age groups. The decline was particularly sharp for those who had been unemployed for 52 weeks or more (-56,000; -23.4%).

Long-term unemployment as a proportion of total unemployment fell 2.2 percentage points to 25.6% in November, following four months of little change. The share remained elevated compared with the level of 15.6% observed before the pandemic.

Wage rates rise 5.2% over two years after adjusting for employment composition

Average hourly wages were 5.2% higher (+$1.46 to $29.57) in November 2021 compared with two years earlier, controlling for the unprecedented changes in the composition of employment since February 2020. The October CPI indicated an increase of 5.3% from two years earlier. In comparison, fixed-weighted average wages had increased 5.1% from October 2019 to October 2021, or 7.5%, without controlling for composition changes.

Not surprisingly, wages increased more for recent hires than for established employees. The record-high job vacancies in September have continued to focus attention on the question of whether employers in some industries might raise wages to address recruitment and retention challenges. Average wages increased faster for new employees than for employees who have been in their current job for 18 months or longer.

Bottom Line

When the Bank announces its policy decision next week, Governor Macklem will undoubtedly confirm that the economy has bounced back from its Q2 weakness. Though the omicron variant has increased uncertainty regarding the pandemic outlook, the economy is rapidly approaching full employment. Moreover, as inflation remains well above target and wage pressures are mounting, the Bank will be mindful of its commitment to normalize interest rates next year. If anything, today’s labour market report may accelerate expectations for a BoC rate hike to the first quarter of next year rather than the second.

Please note: The source of this article is from Sherry Cooper

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