27 Oct

Hawkish Bank of Canada Decision – October 27 2021

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Posted by: Matthew J. Charlton

October 27 2021

Bank of Canada Responds To Mounting Inflation: Ends QE and Hastens Timing of Rate Hike

The Bank of Canada surprised markets today with a more hawkish stance on inflation and the economy. The Bank released its widely anticipated October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in which its key messages were:

  • The Canadian economy has accelerated robustly in the second half.
  • Labour markets have improved, especially in the hard-to-distance sectors. Despite continuing slack, many businesses can’t find appropriate workers quickly enough to meet demand.
  • Disruptions to global supply chains have worsened, limiting production and leading to both higher costs and higher prices.
  • The output gap is narrower than projected in July. The Bank now expects slack to be absorbed in Q2 or Q3 of next year, one quarter sooner than earlier projected.
  • Given persistent supply constraints and the increase in energy prices, the Bank expects inflation to stay above the control range for longer than previously anticipated before easing back to close to the 2 percent target by late 2022.
  • The Bank views the risks around this inflation outlook as roughly balanced.

In response to the Bank’s revised view, it announced that it is ending quantitative easing, shifting to the reinvestment phase, during which it will purchase Government of Canada bonds solely to replace maturing bonds. The Bank now owns about 45% of all outstanding GoC bonds.

The Bank today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 1/4 percent. While this was widely expected, the Bank adjusted its forward guidance. It moved up its guidance for the first hike in the overnight rate target by three months, from the second half of 2022 to the middle quarters–sometime between April and September.

Canadian bond traders had already bet a rate hike would occur in Q1 or Q2. Nevertheless, bond yields spiked at 10 AM today when the Bank released its policy decision (see chart below).

Bottom Line

Since the Bank last met in early September, the Government of Canada five-year bond yield has spiked from .80% by a whopping 60 basis points to a 1.40%. That is an incredible 75% rise. A year ago, the five-year bond yield was only .37%.

The Bank believes the surge in inflation is transitory, but that does not mean it will be brief. CPI inflation was 4.4% y/y in September and is expected to rise and average around 4.75% over the remainder of this year. Macklem now believes inflation will remain above the Bank’s 1%-to-3% target band until late next year.

There is also a good deal of uncertainty about the size of the slack in the economy. This is always hard to measure, especially now when unemployment remains elevated at 6.9%, while sectors such as restaurants and retail are fraught with labour shortages. Structural changes in the labour force are afoot. Many former restaurant employees have moved on or are reluctant to return to jobs with virus contagion risks and poor working conditions. There was also a surge in early retirements during the pandemic and a dearth of new immigrants.

Concerning housing, the MPR says the following: “Housing market activity is anticipated to remain elevated over 2022 and 2023 after having moderated from recent record-high levels. Increased immigration, solid income levels and favourable financing conditions will support ongoing strength. New construction will add to the supply of houses and should help soften house price growth”.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/ 

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20 Oct

Canadian Inflation Rises Once Again – October 20 2021

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Posted by: Matthew J. Charlton

OCTOBER 20 2021

Prices are Rising Everywhere – Transitory Can Last A Long Time

Today’s release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Canada showed year-over-year (y/y) inflation rising from 4.1% in August to 4.4%, its highest level since February 2003. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.5% y/y last month.

The monthly CPI rose 0.2% in September, at the same pace as in the prior month. Month-over-month CPI growth has been positive for nine consecutive months.

Today’s inflation is a global phenomenon–prices are rising everywhere, primarily due to the interplay between global supply disruptions and extreme weather conditions. Inflation in the US is the highest in the G7 (see chart below). The economy there rebounded earlier than elsewhere in the wake of easier Covid restrictions and more significant markups.

Central banks generally agree that the surge in inflation above the 2% target levels is transitory, but all now recognize that transitory can last a long time. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged that supply chain disruptions are “dragging on” and said last week high inflation readings could “take a little longer to come back down.”

Prices rose y/y in every major category in September, with transportation prices (+9.1%) contributing the most to the all-items increase. Higher shelter (+4.8%) and food prices (+3.9%) also contributed to the growth in the all-items CPI for September.

Prices at the gas pump rose 32.8% compared with September last year. The contributors to the year-over-year gain include lower price levels in 2020 and reduced crude output by major oil-producing countries compared with pre-pandemic levels.

Gasoline prices fell 0.1% month over month in September, as uncertainty about global oil demand continued following the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant (see charts below).

Bottom Line

Today’s CPI release was the last significant economic indicator before the Bank of Canada meeting next Wednesday, October 27. While no one expects the Bank of Canada to hike overnight rates next week, market-driven interest rates are up sharply (see charts below). Fixed mortgage rates are edging higher with the rise in 5-year Government of Canada bond yields. The right-hand chart below shows the yield curve today compared to one year ago. The curve is hinged at the steady 25 basis point overnight rate set by the BoC, but the chart shows that the yield curve has steepened sharply with the rise in market-determined longer-term interest rates.

Moreover, several market pundits on Bay Street call for the Bank of Canada to hike the overnight rate sooner than the Bank’s guidance suggests–the second half of next year. Traders are now betting that the Bank will begin to hike rates early next year. The overnight swaps market is currently pricing in three hikes in Canada by the end of 2022, which would bring the policy rate to 1.0%. Remember, they can be wrong. Given the global nature of the inflation pressures, it’s hard to imagine what tighter monetary policy in Canada could do to reduce these price pressures. The only thing it would accomplish is to slow economic activity in Canada vis-a-vis the rest of the world, particularly if the US Federal Reserve sticks to its plan to wait until 2023 to start hiking rates.

It is expected that the Bank will taper its bond-buying program once again to $1 billion, from the current pace of $2 billion.

The Bank will release its economic forecast next week in the Monetary Policy Report. It will need to raise Q3 inflation to 4.1% from its prior forecast of 3.9%.

 

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/ 

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8 Oct

Great News On The Canadian Job Front – October 8 2021

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Posted by: Matthew J. Charlton

OCTOBER 8 2021

Blockbuster September Jobs Report–Further Fuel For Rising Interest Rates

Statistics Canada released the September Labour Force Survey this morning, providing some unmitigated good news on the jobs front. Employment rose by 157,000 (+0.8%) in September, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9%.

Employment gains in September were concentrated in full-time work and among people in the core working-age group of 25 to 54. Increases were spread across multiple industries and provinces.

Employment gains in the month were split between the public-sector (+78,000; +1.9%) and the private-sector (+98,000; +0.8%).

Employment increased in six provinces in September: Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan.

Service-sector increases (+142,000) were led by public administration (+37,000), information, culture and recreation (+33,000) and professional, scientific and technical services (+30,000).

Employment in accommodation and food services fell for the first time in five months (-27,000).

While employment in manufacturing (+22,000) and natural resources (+6,600) increased, there was little overall change in the goods-producing sector.

The gains in September brought employment back to the same level as in February 2020, just before the onset of the pandemic. However, the employment rate—that is, the proportion of the population aged 15 and older employed—was 60.9% in September, 0.9 percentage points lower than in February 2020, due to population growth of 1.4% over the past 19 months.

The number of employed people working less than half their usual hours was little changed in September and remained 218,000 higher (+26.8%) than in February 2020. Total hours worked were up 1.1% in September but were 1.5% below their pre-pandemic level.

Among 15-to-69-year-olds who worked at least half their usual hours, the proportion working from home was little changed in September at 23.8%. The ratio who worked from home was lowest in Saskatchewan (12.3%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (12.8%), and highest in Ontario (28.7%). Overall, at the national level, the proportion of workers who worked from home was higher in urban areas (25.2%) than in rural areas (15.9%).

In September 2021, 4.1 million Canadians who worked at least half their usual hours worked from home, similar to the level recorded in September 2020.

The unemployment rate declined for the fourth consecutive month in September, falling 0.2 percentage points to 6.9%, the lowest rate since the onset of the pandemic. The unemployment rate peaked at 13.7% in May 2020 and has trended downward since, with some short-term increases during the late fall of 2020 and spring of 2021, coinciding with the tightening of public health restrictions. In the months leading up to the pandemic, the unemployment rate had hovered around historic lows and was 5.7% in February 2020.

The adjusted unemployment rate—which includes those who wanted a job but did not look for one—was 8.9% in September, down 0.2 percentage points from one month earlier.

Long-term unemployment—the number of people continuously unemployed for 27 weeks or more—was little changed in September. There were 389,000 long-term unemployed, more than double the number in February 2020.

The ability of the long-term unemployed to transition to employment may be influenced by several factors, including their level of education and current labour market conditions. For example, those with no post-secondary education face a labour market where employment in occupations not requiring post-secondary education was 287,000 lower in September 2021 than in September 2019 (not seasonally adjusted).

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has repeatedly suggested that it would not begin to tighten monetary policy until the economy returned to full capacity utilization, which they estimate will not be until at least the second half of next year. Employment will need to surpass pre-pandemic levels before complete recovery is declared because the population had grown since the start of the crisis 19 months ago.

Substantial job losses remain in the hardest-hit sectors. The chart below shows the employment change in percentage terms by sector compared with February 2020.

Sectors where remote work has been widespread–such as professional, scientific and technical services, public administration, finance, insurance and real estate–have seen a net gain in employment. However, in high-touch sectors that were deemed nonessential, the jobs recovery has been far more constrained. This is especially true in agriculture, accommodation and food services, and recreation. Ironically, these sectors have high job vacancy rates as many formerly employed here are reluctant to return. Enhanced benefits and compensation in these sectors will help.

Just this week, the BoC Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated that widespread inflation pressures are likely to remain at least until the end of this year. Most are reflective of global supply chain disruptions as well as extreme weather events. Just how long these will last is uncertain, but tighter monetary policy would have little impact on this type of inflation.

Nevertheless, bond markets have sold off worldwide in response to inflation fears and the annual US debt-ceiling antics. The final chart below shows the steepening of the Canadian yield curve since one year ago. The 5-year bond yield has risen sharply over that period, from 0.378% to a current level today of 1.205%. It is no surprise that 5-year fixed mortgage rates are rising. 

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/ 

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1 Oct

Credit score tips, Why invest in a home inspection, Seasonal home preparation tips and More! – October 2021

Monthly Newsletter

Posted by: Matthew J. Charlton

OCTOBER 2021

Hello!

In this issue:


Get Better Credit With The 5 C’s

Buying your first home is an incredible step in life, but it is not without its hurdles! One of which is demonstrating that you are creditworthy, which all comes down to your ability to manage credit. This is how lenders and credit agencies determine the interest rate you pay. A higher credit rating could mean a lower interest rate and save you thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage.

There are several attributes that lenders consider before granting credit, and these are commonly referred to as the “Five C’s” and consist of: Character, Capacity, Capital, Collateral and Conditions. Let’s take a closer look at each:

Character: The first C focused on YOU and your personal habits, which comes down to whether or not it is in your nature to pay debts on time. The determining factors for your credit character include the following:

  • Whether you habitually pay your bills on time
  • Whether you have any delinquent accounts
  • Your total outstanding debt
  • How you use your available credit:
    • Quick Tip: Using all or most of your available credit is not advised. It is better to increase your credit limit versus utilizing more than 70% of what is available each month. For instance, if you have a limit of $1000 on your credit card, you should never go over $700.
    • If you need to increase your score faster, a good place to start is using less than 30% of your credit limit.
    • If you need to use more, pay off your credit cards early so you do not go above 30% of your credit limit.

Capacity: The second component relating to your credit rating is your capacity. This refers to your ability to pay back the loan and factors in your cash flow versus your debt outstanding, as well as your employment history.

  • How long have you been with your current employer?
  • If you are self-employed, for how long?

Don’t be confused as capacity is not what YOU think you can afford; it is what the LENDER has determined that you can afford depending on your debt service ratio. This ratio is used by lenders to take your total monthly debt payments divided by your gross monthly income to determine whether or not you are able to pay back the loan.

Capital: Capital is the amount of money that a borrower puts towards a potential loan. In the case of mortgages, the starting capital is your down payment. A larger contribution often results in better rates and, in some cases, better mortgage terms. For instance, a mortgage with a down payment of 20% does not require default insurance, which is an added cost. When considering this component, it is a good idea to look at how much you have saved and where your down payment funds will be coming from. Is it a savings account? RRSPs? Or maybe it is a gift from an immediate family member.

Collateral: Collateral is what is pledged against a loan for security of repayment. In the case of auto loans, the loan is typically secured by the vehicle itself as the vehicle would be repossessed and re-sold in the event that the loan is defaulted on. In the case of mortgages, lenders typically consider the value of the property you are purchasing and other assets. They want to see a positive net worth; a negative net worth may result in being denied for a mortgage. Overall, loans with collateral backing are typically more secure and generally result in lower interest rates and better terms.

Conditions: The conditions of the loan can also influence the lender’s desire to provide financing. Conditions can include: interest rate, terms, length of loan and amount of principle needed. Typically lenders are more likely to approve specific-loans, such as a car loan or home improvement loan or mortgage as these have a specific purpose, as opposed to a signature loan.

There is no better time than now to recognize the importance of your credit score and check if you are on track with the Five C’s and your debt habits. A misstep in any one of these areas could be detrimental to your efforts to get a mortgage. If you are not sure or want more information, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me today to determine your current credit score and if there are areas for improvement to help you get a better interest rate and mortgage.


Why Invest in a Home Inspection

While home inspections might not be the most exciting part of your home buying journey, they are extremely important and can save you money and a major headache in the long run.

In a competitive housing market, there can sometimes be pressure to make an offer right away without conditions. However, no matter how competitive a market may be, you should never skip out on things designed for buyer protection – such as a home inspection.

You may have a good eye for décor and love the layout of your potential new home, but what is under the surface is typically where headaches can lie. We have all heard the expression “don’t judge a book by its cover” so why would you make the most important purchase in your life without checking it out?

In fact, there are five reasons that a home inspection might just be the best $300-$500 you ever spend:

  1. It Provides an “Out”: When buying a new house, it is always best to avoid taking chances. While a house may look great on the surface, hidden structural issues such as cracked foundation or roof damage can easily turn into expensive repairs. A home inspection can help reveal any large and/or hidden issues, which can often provide an ‘out’ for the buyer. If you find something that will cost a considerable amount to replace or repair you can go back to the seller’s agent and ask for a reduction in the price. A leaky roof may cost a few thousand to replace. Perhaps the seller would split the cost with you? It’s worth asking. If the price cannot be re-negotiated if issues come to light, then it is best to just walk away on the basis that the home will cost you too much in the long run.
  2. Confirms Safety and Structural Integrity: Another benefit of having a home inspection is not only to find issues, but also to confirm structural integrity. During an inspection, the inspector will review everything from the attic to the furthest reaches of the basement and will look for things like mold, holes in the chimney, saggy beams or improper wiring.
  3. Reveal Illegal Additions or Installations: Similarly to determining any safety and structural issues, home inspections can also reveal hidden additions or DIY installations that may cause trouble down the road. If the seller wired the house improperly or used substandard materials, it not only could cost you big in the future but it could even null and void your home insurance should something happen!
  4. Forecast Future Costs: A home is an ongoing expense, much like a car. Unless it is brand new, there will be regular maintenance and updates required to replace things when they become old and inefficient. For instance, water heaters typically last for 6-10 years, the life of a good roof is around 20 years, while furnaces can last up to 25 years. The home inspection report will include an estimate on the remaining life for each of these big-ticket items, which will give you a heads up on future expected costs and provide you time to save for their eventual replacement.
  5. Peace of Mind: Finally and perhaps most importantly, getting a home inspection is important for your own peace of mind. A home is a huge investment, and one that you will be paying off for 20 or 30 years. It is much easier to feel good about your investment after you have gone through a home inspection and you know that the house is safe and that you won’t run into any surprise problems down the road. While a home inspection isn’t free, peace of mind is priceless and a few hundred bucks is worth it!

If you’re not sure how to get started with your home inspection, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me directly for some help or a few referrals!


Fall Home Tips!

It is hard to believe it is October already! Even though Fall has already started, there are a few things you can do still to ensure your home is well-prepared for the season:

  • Inspect Your Gutters: This time of year it is important to clean and inspect your gutters (replacing as needed) to ensure they are working properly as the rain and snow season hits. If they are clogged or damaged, it could result in a flooded interior and damaged exterior so don’t wait!
  • Check for Drafts: In the Fall and Winter, many homeowners are spending extra money heating their homes due to drafts, but it doesn’t have to be that way! Do a check on all exterior doors and windows to confirm if they are properly sealed. To do this, simply close a door or window on a strip of paper. If the paper slides easily, you need to update your weatherstripping.
  • Have Your Furnace Inspected: In Canada we are no strangers to chilly evenings! To ensure you are comfortable throughout the colder months, be sure to have your furnace inspected by an HVAC professional. They can check leaks, test efficiency, and change the filter. They can also conduct a carbon monoxide check to ensure air safety.
  • Fix Any Concrete/Asphalt Cracks: This one is easy to ignore thinking it will be fine, but it could easily turn into a bigger issue. When water gets into existing cracks during the colder months it will freeze and expand, causing the crack to become even larger.
  • Turn Off Outdoor Plumbing: Since your garden will not need attention until the Spring, it is a good idea to shut off and drain all outdoor faucets and sprinkler systems. Depending on where you live, you might also want to cover them to prevent freezing during the Winter months.
  • Change Your Batteries: It is a good idea annually to check that all smoke detectors and carbon monoxide devices are working. While you’re doing your Fall and Winter home preparations, this is a good time to test your existing gadgets.

Economic Insights with Dr. Sherry Cooper

Read recent insights here!


What Not To Say When The ‘Bank’ Calls

If there’s one thing we’ve learned as technology marches forward—from phone calls to email and text—it’s that fraudsters will always find inventive ways to keep up.

But even as we move to more sophisticated means of communication and security, there are still some basic things that posers do when it comes to bank fraud—and many are summed up in this short article and handy infographic.

For instance, fraudulent emails often arrive dressed in your bank’s brand colours and logo asking for account numbers and PINs or birthdates. It’s easy to think these queries are legit—you might even recall discussing this information with your bank at some point. But here’s the key difference: it was probably when you called them. Your bank would not reach out to you to verify these things.

Source: Bridgewater Bank

 

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